Shuijingfang (600779) 2019Q3 opinion: 19Q3 premium wine revenue growth rate overview performance growth rate exceeds expectations

Shuijingfang (600779) 2019Q3 opinion: 19Q3 premium wine revenue growth rate overview performance growth rate exceeds expectations

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved revenue of 26 in the first three quarters.

5.1 billion, an increase of 23 in ten years.

93%, net profit attributable to mothers6.

3.9 billion, an increase of 38 in ten years.


3Q19 achieved revenue 9.

6.1 billion, an increase of 19 无锡桑拿网 years.

71%; net profit attributable to mothers was 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 53.


We forecast the company’s 19Q3 revenue and net profit growth at 22% and 25% in the performance forecast, and the company’s performance growth will exceed expectations.

Investment rating and estimation: As the company’s performance growth exceeds expectations, the profit forecast is raised, and the EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

6 yuan, 2 yuan, 2.

4 yuan (previously was 1.

52 yuan, 1.

9 yuan, 2.

3 yuan), annual growth of 35%, 25%, 20%, the current corresponding PE is expected to be 29x, 23x, 19x, maintaining the overweight rating.

The company’s leaders have rich experience in foreign FMCG management, which helps the company maintain healthy and sustainable growth.

In the long run, with Diageo’s shareholder background, the market-oriented mechanism of foreign companies and the general trend of consumption upgrade, the company still has troubled growth space in the sub-high-end field.

In 19Q3, the income of high-end wine increased by 19 every year.

71%, a slight increase in pilot speed.

The company achieved revenue of 26 in the first three quarters.

5.1 billion, after excluding alcoholic beverages26.

07 billion, an increase of 23% over the same period, mainly due to the increase in sales volume brought by the expansion of the distribution network and continued high-end.

Looking at the volume and price, the sales volume of liquor in the first three quarters was 6,626 tons, an increase of more than 24%. The price per ton was slightly inclined, mainly due to structural changes. Among them, the revenue of products above 600 yuan fell by 16% compared with the same period last year.27%.

19Q3 company achieved revenue 9.

6.1 billion, an increase of 19 years.

71%, of which, premium wine revenue was 9.

3.6 billion, an annual increase of 19.

16%, mid-range wine revenue of 24.65 million, an annual increase of 85.

08%, 19Q3 premium wine growth rate slightly decreased, mainly due to the impact of the economic environment, high-end products through the sale of certain problems with the sale of goods after sales, intensified competition in the sub-high-end sector.

In 19Q3, premium wine accounted for 97%.

43%, a decrease of 0 per year.

At 9 points, the decline in the proportion of premium wine revenue was mainly due to the increase in mid-range wine sales.

By region, 19Q3 North District, East District, South District, Central District, and West District had five revenues of 1.

6 billion, 2.

6 billion, 1.

2 billion, 1.

5 billion, 1.800 million, with annual growth rates of 32%, 14%, 34%, 1%, 24%, accounting for 17%, 27%, 12%, 16%, and 19% respectively.

19Q3 net profit margin increased significantly, mainly due to a sharp decline in sales expense ratio.

3Q19 net sales margin 31.

19%, an increase of 6 per year.

85pct, the increase in net profit margin was mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in sales expense ratio.

19Q3 sales gross profit margin 83.

01%, a year up 0.

72pct, among which, the gross profit margin of high-end and mid-range wine increased by 0.

44 points and 2.

38 points.

Selling expense ratio 22.

95%, down 5 per year.

84 expenses, the main reason for the declining sales expense ratio was that the company adjusted its expenses in the third quarter.

Management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 6.

72%, down by 1 every year.

73pct, mainly due to the company’s own scale effect.

The tax rate is 15.

35%, an increase of 2 per year.

03 averages, which is a normal quarterly fluctuation.

19Q3 other income 0.

2.9 billion, an increase of 20.30 million, mainly due to the increase in industrial development support funds received in the current period.

The growth rate of cash flow was faster than the growth rate of income, and advance receipts increased month-on-month.

19Q3 Net cash flow from operating activities2.

1.5 billion, an annual growth of 35.


Cash received for the sale of goods and services10.

9.4 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.

29%, faster cash flow growth than revenue growth mainly due to changes in advance receipts, 19Q3 advance receipts increased by 22 million, 18Q3 advance receipts increased by 4 million.

Catalysts for continued performance: higher-than-expected growth in revenue and profits