Lanfan Medical (002382)： Stable growth of stent gloves business affected by short-term pressure due to price changes
Lanfan Medical (002382): Stable growth of stent gloves business affected by short-term pressure due to price changes
Event: The company announced the first quarter report 武汉夜网论坛of 2019, realizing operating income8.36 ppm, a 117-year increase.16%, net profit attributable to mother is 96.05 million yuan, an annual increase of 64.47%, deducting non-net profit of 80.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.28%; At the same time, it predicts that the net profit of returning mothers will increase by 50-80% from January to June 2019. The acquisition of Parkson International has further expanded the company’s revenue and profits.Benefiting from the company’s successful completion of the acquisition of Parkson International in June 2018, the company’s revenue and profit scale increased significantly in the first quarter of 2019. The increase in gross profit margin of Parkson International’s stent business has brought the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin42.35%, an increase of 15 per year.46pp, while the company’s period expense ratio is 25.74%, an increase of 14 per year.70pp is mainly due to the higher cost of Parkson’s consolidation. The glove business is affected by the gradual price fluctuations, and the profit side is under short-term pressure. It is expected to gradually recover from the second quarter of 2019. In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s glove business revenue increased by more than 15%, mainly benefiting from the commissioning of new nitrile production capacity at the end of 2018, and the profit margin extended by more than 50%, mainly because the relatively high price of PVC gloves in the glove business is in a long cycleAt the bottom of the market, we expect to gradually pick up in the second quarter of 2019, and gradually achieve steady growth driven by the new production capacity of nitrile. The stent business has grown steadily and the domestic market has grown rapidly.Affected by the impact of factors, in the first quarter of 2019, Parkson International’s revenue achieved nearly 10% growth, of which the domestic market still maintained a rapid growth of 20 +%. Considering that the company’s internal new product stent has gradually started to increase volume, the international market is in the middleThe new BioFreedom product has been successfully listed in Japan and is expected to be approved by the FDA in the third quarter of 2019. The company’s major performance commitments are expected to be successfully completed. Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-2136.13, 40.95, 46.370,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.17%, 13.34%, 13.25%, net profit attributable to mother 6.40, 7.75,天津夜网 9.19 ppm, an increase of 84 in ten years.54%, 21.12%, 18.59%, corresponding EPS is 0.66, 0.80, 0.95.At present, the company’s market value is around 14.2 billion. Considering that the company’s low-value consumables + high-value consumables grow steadily and compete well, we use the segment valuation method, in which the bracket business gives 35 times the value and the glove business gives 15 times the value.The annual reasonable market value is about 18 billion yuan, and we maintain the “Buy” rating. Risk Warning: Product marketing is not up to expected risk, policy change risk, product R & D failure risk, market sales forecast is less than expected risk.